For years, Americans have been told that violent crime is surging and that public safety is collapsing. Those claims may be politically useful, but they are increasingly disconnected from reality. New crime data shows that 2025 recorded the lowest murder rate in decades, continuing a sustained national decline that began after the pandemic-era spike.
Preliminary data from the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting program indicates that homicides fell again in 2025, reaching levels not seen since the late 1960s and early 1970s when adjusted for population. While these figures are still considered preliminary, the FBI’s early releases have historically proven to be reliable indicators of final totals.
Independent datasets tell the same story. The Major Cities Chiefs Association, which tracks homicide data from more than 70 of the nation’s largest cities, reports broad declines across regions and city sizes. Crime analyst Jeff Asher’s AH Datalytics, which aggregates real-time police department data nationwide, found that 2025 homicide totals were the lowest in roughly 60 years on a per-capita basis.
This matters because the decline is not isolated, regional, or statistical noise. It appears across multiple independent datasets using different methodologies. Population growth did not drive the drop. Reporting changes did not fabricate it. The trend is real.
None of this suggests crime has disappeared or that communities should ignore legitimate public safety concerns. But it does undermine a persistent narrative that violent crime is “out of control.” As final FBI numbers are released in the months ahead, the evidence already points to a clear conclusion: America is safer than many headlines would have you believe.
