There’s a fascinating new piece by CalMatters that digs into a hidden side effect of California’s housing crisis — how rising rents are gutting public transit use. The headline says it all: How gentrification is killing the bus.
Take Vermont Square in South Los Angeles. Over the past decade, the neighborhood gentrified in the usual ways. Median income jumped. The number of Black residents dropped. Housing prices soared. But something else happened — bus ridership fell off a cliff.
Between 2012 and 2017, the area saw a 24 percent drop in transit use. That same period brought an average rent increase of $468 a month. And Vermont Square isn’t alone. Across Los Angeles and Orange counties, the trend is clear. The more rents go up, the fewer people ride the bus.
This isn’t just a coincidence. According to a UCLA study, the pattern holds across neighborhoods with strong transit access. In Chinatown, rents rose $379 and ridership dropped 21 percent. In Pacoima, a $305 rent jump led to a 28 percent decline. On average, for every $230 added to monthly rent, ridership dropped by more than 20 percent.
The logic is simple. When rent hikes push lower-income people out, they take their transit habits with them. Those who move in — often wealthier residents — are more likely to own cars and drive.
That means gentrification isn’t just displacing people. It’s also gutting the very public services they rely on. And with California’s public transit systems already struggling, this trend only makes things worse.
Transit agencies across the state have faced years of declining ridership. COVID made it worse. Emergency federal funding helped keep them afloat, but that lifeline is drying up. Rideshare apps, more car ownership, inflation, and rising maintenance costs have all added to the pressure. And now, housing costs are pushing away the very people who depend on the bus most.
UCLA professor Michael Manville, one of the lead researchers, puts it plainly. High rents near transit stops mean fewer high-frequency riders can afford to live there. They’re either priced out of the system altogether or pushed into car ownership — which is costly for them and harmful for the climate.
And things are likely worse now than when the study was conducted. Post-pandemic costs are up. Ride shares are more expensive. Buying a car is pricier than ever. People being displaced might not be able to drive even if they want to. That leaves them stuck in areas with worse transit and fewer options.
All of this adds up. Fewer transit options are linked to higher unemployment, worse health outcomes, and deeper social isolation. And the trend isn’t limited to California. Across North America, rising housing costs are pushing poor residents farther from job centers and transit hubs, hollowing out the effectiveness of public transportation.
The question now is: what can be done?
In Sacramento, some lawmakers are trying to connect the dots. Senator Scott Wiener’s Senate Bill 79 would make it easier to build dense housing near transit stations, including on land owned by transit agencies. The idea is to let more people live near transit, boosting ridership and reducing displacement.
The bill is facing stiff opposition. Labor unions, local governments, and some advocates say it doesn’t do enough to guarantee affordability. A coalition led by the California Rural Legal Assistance Foundation argues that building dense housing without affordability requirements could worsen displacement of the very transit riders the bill claims to help.
The debate highlights a deep divide in California politics. Some see more housing as the answer to gentrification, believing it will ease rent pressure and keep people in place. Others argue that unless housing is explicitly affordable, it risks making the problem worse.
Manville isn’t tracking the bill closely, but he says the logic behind it makes sense. More housing near transit has two benefits. First, some new residents will use the system — even high earners drive less when they live near rail or rapid bus routes. Second, more housing slows rent growth by reducing competition for a limited supply. That helps lower-income residents stay — and keep riding the bus.
California’s housing crisis touches everything. It makes homelessness worse. It fuels inequality. It clogs highways and drives up emissions. And now we see it’s also undermining one of the few tools we have to fight all that: public transit.
If the state wants transit systems to succeed, it can’t just fund the buses. It has to make sure the riders can afford to live near the stops.
