Former President Donald Trump’s proposal to significantly increase U.S. energy production, including ramping up oil drilling, could disrupt global oil markets and spell trouble for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its partners, OPEC+. This group, which includes major producers like Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iraq, has relied on production cuts in recent years to stabilize prices and manage market share. However, Trump’s strategy could undercut their efforts.

Trump has promised to “cut energy prices in half within 12 months” of returning to office. His plan focuses on utilizing U.S. natural resources to boost supply, which could flood global markets with American oil and gas. 

Weak demand in China is already reducing the need for OPEC’s crude, creating tension within the organization.

If Trump’s plan moves forward, the increased supply of U.S. oil could drive down prices, but it could also pressure OPEC+ to reconsider its strategy.